U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timetable or active plan for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, favoring coercive gray-zone tactics such as expanded coast guard patrols, research vessel operations, and routine military aircraft incursions over amphibious assault. Recent military leadership purges under Xi Jinping have further degraded PLA command readiness for complex joint operations, while cross-strait economic ties and the absence of large-scale sealift mobilization reinforce trader expectations of continued pressure short of war. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises and combat readiness drills highlight defensive preparations amid these activities, but no verified escalation signals within the resolution window to June 30, 2027, have shifted the 91.5% implied probability on “No.”