**Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion in August of that year, and as of mid-September 2026 the settlement remains under Ukrainian control amid ongoing fighting in the Dobropillya-Kostyantynivka sector.** Recent Ukrainian General Staff reports note repeated repels of Russian assaults directed toward Kucheriv Yar and nearby settlements, consistent with broader Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts such as Operation Vivaldi that have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients threatening the Donetsk “Fortress Belt.” ISW assessments through September 17 show no confirmed Russian advances into the specific intersection referenced by the market, while trader pricing reflects low implied probabilities for near-term capture. Key variables include the pace of Russian infantry assaults versus Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, artillery, and drone interdiction in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with no major scheduled events altering the immediate tactical situation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
$147,592 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
25%
$147,592 Vol.
October 31
$16,227 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion in August of that year, and as of mid-September 2026 the settlement remains under Ukrainian control amid ongoing fighting in the Dobropillya-Kostyantynivka sector.** Recent Ukrainian General Staff reports note repeated repels of Russian assaults directed toward Kucheriv Yar and nearby settlements, consistent with broader Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts such as Operation Vivaldi that have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients threatening the Donetsk “Fortress Belt.” ISW assessments through September 17 show no confirmed Russian advances into the specific intersection referenced by the market, while trader pricing reflects low implied probabilities for near-term capture. Key variables include the pace of Russian infantry assaults versus Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, artillery, and drone interdiction in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with no major scheduled events altering the immediate tactical situation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$147,592End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion in August of that year, and as of mid-September 2026 the settlement remains under Ukrainian control amid ongoing fighting in the Dobropillya-Kostyantynivka sector.** Recent Ukrainian General Staff reports note repeated repels of Russian assaults directed toward Kucheriv Yar and nearby settlements, consistent with broader Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts such as Operation Vivaldi that have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients threatening the Donetsk “Fortress Belt.” ISW assessments through September 17 show no confirmed Russian advances into the specific intersection referenced by the market, while trader pricing reflects low implied probabilities for near-term capture. Key variables include the pace of Russian infantry assaults versus Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, artillery, and drone interdiction in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with no major scheduled events altering the immediate tactical situation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$147,592End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion in August of that year, and as of mid-September 2026 the settlement remains under Ukrainian control amid ongoing fighting in the Dobropillya-Kostyantynivka sector.** Recent Ukrainian General Staff reports note repeated repels of Russian assaults directed toward Kucheriv Yar and nearby settlements, consistent with broader Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts such as Operation Vivaldi that have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients threatening the Donetsk “Fortress Belt.” ISW assessments through September 17 show no confirmed Russian advances into the specific intersection referenced by the market, while trader pricing reflects low implied probabilities for near-term capture. Key variables include the pace of Russian infantry assaults versus Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, artillery, and drone interdiction in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis, with no major scheduled events altering the immediate tactical situation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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