Recent geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, have pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher and lifted the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to the mid-6% range as of mid-May 2026, with averages recently reported between 6.27% and 6.50%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady through its early 2026 meetings, signaling a cautious stance amid sticky core PCE inflation around 3.0% and resilient labor market data. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project the 30-year rate will remain near 6.1%–6.3% by year-end, reflecting limited scope for sharp declines unless inflation moderates or the Fed signals additional easing. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh CPI and PCE releases plus the next FOMC policy statement, which could influence bond-market pricing and mortgage-rate volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
$49,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 7.00%
50%
↑ 6.75%
55%
↑ 6.50%
76%
↓ 5.90%
49%
↓ 5.70%
49%
↓ 5.50%
56%
$49,755 Vol.
↑ 7.00%
$26 Vol.
50%
↑ 6.75%
$118 Vol.
55%
↑ 6.50%
$6,700 Vol.
76%
↓ 5.90%
$6,005 Vol.
49%
↓ 5.70%
$6,769 Vol.
49%
↓ 5.50%
$25 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Recent geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, have pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher and lifted the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to the mid-6% range as of mid-May 2026, with averages recently reported between 6.27% and 6.50%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady through its early 2026 meetings, signaling a cautious stance amid sticky core PCE inflation around 3.0% and resilient labor market data. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project the 30-year rate will remain near 6.1%–6.3% by year-end, reflecting limited scope for sharp declines unless inflation moderates or the Fed signals additional easing. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh CPI and PCE releases plus the next FOMC policy statement, which could influence bond-market pricing and mortgage-rate volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$49,755End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Recent geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, have pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher and lifted the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to the mid-6% range as of mid-May 2026, with averages recently reported between 6.27% and 6.50%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady through its early 2026 meetings, signaling a cautious stance amid sticky core PCE inflation around 3.0% and resilient labor market data. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project the 30-year rate will remain near 6.1%–6.3% by year-end, reflecting limited scope for sharp declines unless inflation moderates or the Fed signals additional easing. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh CPI and PCE releases plus the next FOMC policy statement, which could influence bond-market pricing and mortgage-rate volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$49,755End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions, including developments in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation expectations, have pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher and lifted the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to the mid-6% range as of mid-May 2026, with averages recently reported between 6.27% and 6.50%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady through its early 2026 meetings, signaling a cautious stance amid sticky core PCE inflation around 3.0% and resilient labor market data. Consensus forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association project the 30-year rate will remain near 6.1%–6.3% by year-end, reflecting limited scope for sharp declines unless inflation moderates or the Fed signals additional easing. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh CPI and PCE releases plus the next FOMC policy statement, which could influence bond-market pricing and mortgage-rate volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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