The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through the 2026 US-Israeli conflict, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, and subsequent military-economic pressures underpins the 99.6% implied probability against collapse by September 30. No major elite defections, unified opposition coalition, or nationwide uprising capable of rapid regime change have materialized in the past month, with authorities instead mobilizing security forces like the Basij amid ongoing sanctions and limited unrest. Diplomatic pauses and internal hardening around military figures have further stabilized the system in the near term. While trader consensus reflects this stability, a sudden internal fracture, escalated protests, or unforeseen leadership crisis in the final days could still shift dynamics before the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,419,890 Vol.
$2,419,890 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
$2,419,890 Vol.
$2,419,890 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through the 2026 US-Israeli conflict, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, and subsequent military-economic pressures underpins the 99.6% implied probability against collapse by September 30. No major elite defections, unified opposition coalition, or nationwide uprising capable of rapid regime change have materialized in the past month, with authorities instead mobilizing security forces like the Basij amid ongoing sanctions and limited unrest. Diplomatic pauses and internal hardening around military figures have further stabilized the system in the near term. While trader consensus reflects this stability, a sudden internal fracture, escalated protests, or unforeseen leadership crisis in the final days could still shift dynamics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,419,890End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through the 2026 US-Israeli conflict, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, and subsequent military-economic pressures underpins the 99.6% implied probability against collapse by September 30. No major elite defections, unified opposition coalition, or nationwide uprising capable of rapid regime change have materialized in the past month, with authorities instead mobilizing security forces like the Basij amid ongoing sanctions and limited unrest. Diplomatic pauses and internal hardening around military figures have further stabilized the system in the near term. While trader consensus reflects this stability, a sudden internal fracture, escalated protests, or unforeseen leadership crisis in the final days could still shift dynamics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,419,890End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through the 2026 US-Israeli conflict, leadership succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, and subsequent military-economic pressures underpins the 99.6% implied probability against collapse by September 30. No major elite defections, unified opposition coalition, or nationwide uprising capable of rapid regime change have materialized in the past month, with authorities instead mobilizing security forces like the Basij amid ongoing sanctions and limited unrest. Diplomatic pauses and internal hardening around military figures have further stabilized the system in the near term. While trader consensus reflects this stability, a sudden internal fracture, escalated protests, or unforeseen leadership crisis in the final days could still shift dynamics before the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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