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icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 58%

3rd hottest 39%

2nd hottest 6%

4th or lower 1.4%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

1st hottest 58%

3rd hottest 39%

2nd hottest 6%

4th or lower 1.4%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

1st hottest

$1,052 Vol.

63%

2nd hottest

$332 Vol.

6%

3rd hottest

$1,372 Vol.

31%

4th or lower

$660 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$3,416
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$3,416
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Questions fréquentes

« 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 1st hottest » à 63%, suivi de « 3rd hottest » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 63¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 63% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 6, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? » est « 1st hottest » à 63%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 63% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 3rd hottest » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.