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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

Flávio Bolsonaro 69%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 30.9%

Renan Santos <1%

Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$7,669,088 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 69%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 30.9%

Renan Santos <1%

Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$7,669,088 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$1,031,550 Vol.

69%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$860,619 Vol.

31%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,357,779 Vol.

<1%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$261,447 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$274,561 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$205,331 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$810,518 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$229,030 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$173,947 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$750,182 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$507,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$421,735 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$207,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$231,008 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$144,665 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$142,390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$36,533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$21,972 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions, with the senator from the Liberal Party (PL) consistently positioned as the primary challenger consolidating right-wing support. Lula's lead remains within margins of error across major surveys conducted in mid-September 2026, while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Flávio's campaign has focused on regional outreach in Lula strongholds such as the Northeast and criticism of Supreme Court actions, amid ongoing legal constraints on former president Jair Bolsonaro. These dynamics have sustained trader consensus around Flávio securing second place, reflecting the absence of a viable alternative right-wing contender capable of challenging the two frontrunners before the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,669,088
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions, with the senator from the Liberal Party (PL) consistently positioned as the primary challenger consolidating right-wing support. Lula's lead remains within margins of error across major surveys conducted in mid-September 2026, while other declared candidates trail in single digits. Flávio's campaign has focused on regional outreach in Lula strongholds such as the Northeast and criticism of Supreme Court actions, amid ongoing legal constraints on former president Jair Bolsonaro. These dynamics have sustained trader consensus around Flávio securing second place, reflecting the absence of a viable alternative right-wing contender capable of challenging the two frontrunners before the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,669,088
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

53%
Oui
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

69%
Oui
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?

Flavio Bolsonaro remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?

91%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 18 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 69%, suivi de « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 69¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 69% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » a généré $7.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place », parcourez les 18 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 69%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 69% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.