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icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

Flávio Bolsonaro 62%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.7%

Romeu Zema 6.5%

Polymarket

$3,522,540 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 62%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.7%

Romeu Zema 6.5%

Polymarket

$3,522,540 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$56,395 Vol.

62%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$67,153 Vol.

15%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$995,076 Vol.

7%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$256,381 Vol.

7%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$72,825 Vol.

4%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$651,329 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$56,008 Vol.

2%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$2,848 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$289,157 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$123,364 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$111,040 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$642,631 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$29,825 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$48,401 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$2,246 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$77,363 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$40,500 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated support from Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligible base after receiving his father’s formal endorsement in December 2025. Recent polling averages show the Liberal Party senator trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by only a few points in the opening round while far outpacing other right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. Lula’s modest first-round edge stems from steady approval ratings near 45 percent amid ongoing economic pressures, yet the fragmented opposition field leaves little room for any alternative candidate to challenge Flávio for the runner-up slot. Traders view the race as a likely Lula-Flávio runoff matchup, with the latter’s position reinforced by consistent survey leads over centrist and left-leaning alternatives.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,522,540
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated support from Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligible base after receiving his father’s formal endorsement in December 2025. Recent polling averages show the Liberal Party senator trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by only a few points in the opening round while far outpacing other right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. Lula’s modest first-round edge stems from steady approval ratings near 45 percent amid ongoing economic pressures, yet the fragmented opposition field leaves little room for any alternative candidate to challenge Flávio for the runner-up slot. Traders view the race as a likely Lula-Flávio runoff matchup, with the latter’s position reinforced by consistent survey leads over centrist and left-leaning alternatives.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,522,540
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 17 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 62%, suivi de « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 15%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 62¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 62% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » a généré $3.5 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place », parcourez les 17 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 62%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 62% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 15%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.