The tight race for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote reflects polling trends that place Romeu Zema and Renan Santos ahead of other non-front-runner candidates while remaining in the low single digits overall. Zema, the outgoing Minas Gerais governor running with the Novo party, and Santos, the Mission party leader and Free Brazil Movement co-founder, benefit from center-right positioning that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to the polarized contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado trails in market pricing due to softer recent survey numbers. With months of campaigning ahead, shifts in right-wing consolidation, turnout patterns in key states, or late endorsements could widen gaps among the three before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRomeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.4%
$280,350 Vol.
$280,350 Vol.

Romeu Zema
32%

Renan Santos
31%

Ronaldo Caiado
19%

Michelle Bolsonaro
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
3%

Camilo Santana
2%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Tereza Cristina
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Leite
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Romeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.4%
$280,350 Vol.
$280,350 Vol.

Romeu Zema
32%

Renan Santos
31%

Ronaldo Caiado
19%

Michelle Bolsonaro
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
3%

Camilo Santana
2%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Tereza Cristina
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Leite
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight race for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 first-round presidential vote reflects polling trends that place Romeu Zema and Renan Santos ahead of other non-front-runner candidates while remaining in the low single digits overall. Zema, the outgoing Minas Gerais governor running with the Novo party, and Santos, the Mission party leader and Free Brazil Movement co-founder, benefit from center-right positioning that appeals to voters seeking alternatives to the polarized contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado trails in market pricing due to softer recent survey numbers. With months of campaigning ahead, shifts in right-wing consolidation, turnout patterns in key states, or late endorsements could widen gaps among the three before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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