Recent national polls show a tight race heading into Brazil's October 4 first round, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding only a modest edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio's candidacy, backed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has consolidated much of the right-wing vote under the Liberal Party banner, while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema split additional conservative support. This fragmented field keeps the expected margin between the leading pair narrow, with traders pricing in the influence of undecided voters, economic priorities, and turnout patterns that could determine whether Lula secures a small first-round advantage or faces a more competitive runoff path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Victoire de Renan Santos
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Autre
15%
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 7.8%
$231,585 Vol.
$231,585 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
16%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$200,567 Vol.
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Autre
$2,258 Vol.
15%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls show a tight race heading into Brazil's October 4 first round, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding only a modest edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio's candidacy, backed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has consolidated much of the right-wing vote under the Liberal Party banner, while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema split additional conservative support. This fragmented field keeps the expected margin between the leading pair narrow, with traders pricing in the influence of undecided voters, economic priorities, and turnout patterns that could determine whether Lula secures a small first-round advantage or faces a more competitive runoff path.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$231,585Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls show a tight race heading into Brazil's October 4 first round, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding only a modest edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio's candidacy, backed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has consolidated much of the right-wing vote under the Liberal Party banner, while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema split additional conservative support. This fragmented field keeps the expected margin between the leading pair narrow, with traders pricing in the influence of undecided voters, economic priorities, and turnout patterns that could determine whether Lula secures a small first-round advantage or faces a more competitive runoff path.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$231,585Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls show a tight race heading into Brazil's October 4 first round, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding only a modest edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio's candidacy, backed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has consolidated much of the right-wing vote under the Liberal Party banner, while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema split additional conservative support. This fragmented field keeps the expected margin between the leading pair narrow, with traders pricing in the influence of undecided voters, economic priorities, and turnout patterns that could determine whether Lula secures a small first-round advantage or faces a more competitive runoff path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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