Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 7.5%
$231,590 Vol.
$231,590 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Victoire de Renan Santos
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
1%
Autre
14%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 7.5%
$231,590 Vol.
$231,590 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
16%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$200,567 Vol.
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$1,774 Vol.
1%
Autre
$2,258 Vol.
14%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$231,590Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$231,590Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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