Laura Friedman (D), the incumbent since 2025, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 53% of the vote and advances to face Republican Scott Meyers in the November general election for California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+20, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Limited Republican opposition, high Democratic voter registration in Los Angeles-area precincts, and the absence of competitive challengers or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, an unforeseen scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural advantages make such outcomes improbable absent major developments before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-30
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-30
$22,831 Vol.
$22,831 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$22,831 Vol.
$22,831 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$12,811 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$10,021 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Friedman (D), the incumbent since 2025, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 53% of the vote and advances to face Republican Scott Meyers in the November general election for California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+20, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Limited Republican opposition, high Democratic voter registration in Los Angeles-area precincts, and the absence of competitive challengers or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, an unforeseen scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural advantages make such outcomes improbable absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$22,831Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Friedman (D), the incumbent since 2025, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 53% of the vote and advances to face Republican Scott Meyers in the November general election for California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+20, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Limited Republican opposition, high Democratic voter registration in Los Angeles-area precincts, and the absence of competitive challengers or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, an unforeseen scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural advantages make such outcomes improbable absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,831Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Laura Friedman (D), the incumbent since 2025, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 53% of the vote and advances to face Republican Scott Meyers in the November general election for California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and a partisan voting index exceeding D+20, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5%. Limited Republican opposition, high Democratic voter registration in Los Angeles-area precincts, and the absence of competitive challengers or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national political shift, an unforeseen scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout, though structural advantages make such outcomes improbable absent major developments before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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