The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 38th congressional district produced a clear path for Democrat Hilda Solis to face Republican Pedro Casas in the November general election. Solis captured the leading share of votes in a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past results favoring Democratic candidates. Solis's established profile as a former U.S. Labor Secretary and long-serving local official contributed to her primary performance. Trader consensus pricing at 94.5% for a Democratic winner incorporates this primary outcome, the district's voter registration and historical margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, depressed Democratic turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal in the final months before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-38 House Election Winner
CA-38 House Election Winner
$60,256 Vol.
$60,256 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$60,256 Vol.
$60,256 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Democratic Party
$29,724 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$30,532 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 38th congressional district produced a clear path for Democrat Hilda Solis to face Republican Pedro Casas in the November general election. Solis captured the leading share of votes in a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past results favoring Democratic candidates. Solis's established profile as a former U.S. Labor Secretary and long-serving local official contributed to her primary performance. Trader consensus pricing at 94.5% for a Democratic winner incorporates this primary outcome, the district's voter registration and historical margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, depressed Democratic turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal in the final months before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$60,256Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 38th congressional district produced a clear path for Democrat Hilda Solis to face Republican Pedro Casas in the November general election. Solis captured the leading share of votes in a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past results favoring Democratic candidates. Solis's established profile as a former U.S. Labor Secretary and long-serving local official contributed to her primary performance. Trader consensus pricing at 94.5% for a Democratic winner incorporates this primary outcome, the district's voter registration and historical margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, depressed Democratic turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal in the final months before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,256Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California's 38th congressional district produced a clear path for Democrat Hilda Solis to face Republican Pedro Casas in the November general election. Solis captured the leading share of votes in a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past results favoring Democratic candidates. Solis's established profile as a former U.S. Labor Secretary and long-serving local official contributed to her primary performance. Trader consensus pricing at 94.5% for a Democratic winner incorporates this primary outcome, the district's voter registration and historical margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing, depressed Democratic turnout, or unforeseen developments such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal in the final months before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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