The race for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested because the right-wing opposition remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from mounting a unified challenge to frontrunner Iván Cepeda. Recent Invamer and AtlasIntel tracking polls show Cepeda holding a lead in the high thirties to low forties while his main rivals each hover in the low-to-mid twenties, producing a projected margin that traders view as most likely to fall between five and fifteen points. High undecided voters near 15 percent and ongoing campaign momentum shifts further compress the distribution of outcomes, with any consolidation behind a single conservative contender or late momentum gains by Cepeda the clearest paths to widening or narrowing that gap ahead of election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.9%
$15,001 Vol.
$15,001 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
30%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
15%
de la Espriella Win
16%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 30%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.9%
$15,001 Vol.
$15,001 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,822 Vol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,132 Vol.
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,123 Vol.
30%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,259 Vol.
15%
de la Espriella Win
$4,115 Vol.
16%
Valencia Win
$2,270 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The race for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested because the right-wing opposition remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from mounting a unified challenge to frontrunner Iván Cepeda. Recent Invamer and AtlasIntel tracking polls show Cepeda holding a lead in the high thirties to low forties while his main rivals each hover in the low-to-mid twenties, producing a projected margin that traders view as most likely to fall between five and fifteen points. High undecided voters near 15 percent and ongoing campaign momentum shifts further compress the distribution of outcomes, with any consolidation behind a single conservative contender or late momentum gains by Cepeda the clearest paths to widening or narrowing that gap ahead of election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$15,001Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The race for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested because the right-wing opposition remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from mounting a unified challenge to frontrunner Iván Cepeda. Recent Invamer and AtlasIntel tracking polls show Cepeda holding a lead in the high thirties to low forties while his main rivals each hover in the low-to-mid twenties, producing a projected margin that traders view as most likely to fall between five and fifteen points. High undecided voters near 15 percent and ongoing campaign momentum shifts further compress the distribution of outcomes, with any consolidation behind a single conservative contender or late momentum gains by Cepeda the clearest paths to widening or narrowing that gap ahead of election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,001Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The race for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote remains closely contested because the right-wing opposition remains divided between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, preventing either from mounting a unified challenge to frontrunner Iván Cepeda. Recent Invamer and AtlasIntel tracking polls show Cepeda holding a lead in the high thirties to low forties while his main rivals each hover in the low-to-mid twenties, producing a projected margin that traders view as most likely to fall between five and fifteen points. High undecided voters near 15 percent and ongoing campaign momentum shifts further compress the distribution of outcomes, with any consolidation behind a single conservative contender or late momentum gains by Cepeda the clearest paths to widening or narrowing that gap ahead of election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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