The hotter-than-expected 0.3% August core CPI month-over-month print, above the 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader focus on a 0.4% September outcome as the leading probability at 46.5%. Persistent services inflation, shelter costs, and the rebound in gasoline prices—accounting for over one-third of the prior headline gain—are sustaining upward momentum in underlying measures. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-September, markets are incorporating this stickiness into forward pricing, alongside elevated oil levels and firmer producer prices. These factors support the current distribution while leaving room for moderation if goods deflation reemerges before the October release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,5 % 42%
0,3 % 42%
0,4 % 39%
0,6 %+ 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤0,0 %
28%
0,1 %
26%
0,2 %
26%
0,3 %
42%
0,4 %
39%
0,5 %
42%
0,6 %+
39%
0,5 % 42%
0,3 % 42%
0,4 % 39%
0,6 %+ 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤0,0 %
$0 Vol.
28%
0,1 %
$0 Vol.
26%
0,2 %
$0 Vol.
26%
0,3 %
$0 Vol.
42%
0,4 %
$0 Vol.
39%
0,5 %
$0 Vol.
42%
0,6 %+
$0 Vol.
39%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The hotter-than-expected 0.3% August core CPI month-over-month print, above the 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader focus on a 0.4% September outcome as the leading probability at 46.5%. Persistent services inflation, shelter costs, and the rebound in gasoline prices—accounting for over one-third of the prior headline gain—are sustaining upward momentum in underlying measures. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-September, markets are incorporating this stickiness into forward pricing, alongside elevated oil levels and firmer producer prices. These factors support the current distribution while leaving room for moderation if goods deflation reemerges before the October release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The hotter-than-expected 0.3% August core CPI month-over-month print, above the 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader focus on a 0.4% September outcome as the leading probability at 46.5%. Persistent services inflation, shelter costs, and the rebound in gasoline prices—accounting for over one-third of the prior headline gain—are sustaining upward momentum in underlying measures. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-September, markets are incorporating this stickiness into forward pricing, alongside elevated oil levels and firmer producer prices. These factors support the current distribution while leaving room for moderation if goods deflation reemerges before the October release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The hotter-than-expected 0.3% August core CPI month-over-month print, above the 0.2% consensus, has elevated trader focus on a 0.4% September outcome as the leading probability at 46.5%. Persistent services inflation, shelter costs, and the rebound in gasoline prices—accounting for over one-third of the prior headline gain—are sustaining upward momentum in underlying measures. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for mid-September, markets are incorporating this stickiness into forward pricing, alongside elevated oil levels and firmer producer prices. These factors support the current distribution while leaving room for moderation if goods deflation reemerges before the October release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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