Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026 (88.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC despite CEO Ali Ghodsi's February 2026 comments that the data and AI platform is "IPO-ready" when market conditions align. Massive early-year funding—a $5 billion equity round at $134 billion private valuation in February and $1.8 billion debt in January—has extended the company's runway, reducing urgency amid robust growth toward $4-5 billion annual recurring revenue. Recent expansions, including a $416 million Australian investment announced May 5 and UK commitments in late March, prioritize global scaling over a rushed listing. With just six weeks remaining, the typical 2-3 month IPO timeline makes a Q2 debut improbable; watch for confidential filing signals that could shift odds. Low probabilities across market cap buckets reflect this delay and potential public valuation discounts versus private peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 94.7%
200–250 Md$ 2.3%
125–150 milliards 1.4%
250 milliards $+ <1%
$403,994 Vol.
$403,994 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<100 Mds $
<1%
100–125 mds
<1%
125–150 milliards
1%
150–175 Md$
<1%
175–200 milliards
<1%
200–250 Md$
2%
250 milliards $+
1%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
82%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 94.7%
200–250 Md$ 2.3%
125–150 milliards 1.4%
250 milliards $+ <1%
$403,994 Vol.
$403,994 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<100 Mds $
$33,240 Vol.
<1%
100–125 mds
$62,203 Vol.
<1%
125–150 milliards
$26,692 Vol.
1%
150–175 Md$
$59,896 Vol.
<1%
175–200 milliards
$58,153 Vol.
<1%
200–250 Md$
$21,122 Vol.
2%
250 milliards $+
$126,215 Vol.
1%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
$16,474 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026 (88.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC despite CEO Ali Ghodsi's February 2026 comments that the data and AI platform is "IPO-ready" when market conditions align. Massive early-year funding—a $5 billion equity round at $134 billion private valuation in February and $1.8 billion debt in January—has extended the company's runway, reducing urgency amid robust growth toward $4-5 billion annual recurring revenue. Recent expansions, including a $416 million Australian investment announced May 5 and UK commitments in late March, prioritize global scaling over a rushed listing. With just six weeks remaining, the typical 2-3 month IPO timeline makes a Q2 debut improbable; watch for confidential filing signals that could shift odds. Low probabilities across market cap buckets reflect this delay and potential public valuation discounts versus private peaks.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$403,994Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026 (88.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC despite CEO Ali Ghodsi's February 2026 comments that the data and AI platform is "IPO-ready" when market conditions align. Massive early-year funding—a $5 billion equity round at $134 billion private valuation in February and $1.8 billion debt in January—has extended the company's runway, reducing urgency amid robust growth toward $4-5 billion annual recurring revenue. Recent expansions, including a $416 million Australian investment announced May 5 and UK commitments in late March, prioritize global scaling over a rushed listing. With just six weeks remaining, the typical 2-3 month IPO timeline makes a Q2 debut improbable; watch for confidential filing signals that could shift odds. Low probabilities across market cap buckets reflect this delay and potential public valuation discounts versus private peaks.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$403,994Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026 (88.1% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing with the SEC despite CEO Ali Ghodsi's February 2026 comments that the data and AI platform is "IPO-ready" when market conditions align. Massive early-year funding—a $5 billion equity round at $134 billion private valuation in February and $1.8 billion debt in January—has extended the company's runway, reducing urgency amid robust growth toward $4-5 billion annual recurring revenue. Recent expansions, including a $416 million Australian investment announced May 5 and UK commitments in late March, prioritize global scaling over a rushed listing. With just six weeks remaining, the typical 2-3 month IPO timeline makes a Q2 debut improbable; watch for confidential filing signals that could shift odds. Low probabilities across market cap buckets reflect this delay and potential public valuation discounts versus private peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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