Incumbent Jared Moskowitz holds an overwhelming edge in the August 18 Democratic primary for Florida’s 25th congressional district, reflecting his two-term status, substantial fundraising, and establishment support in a newly redrawn South Florida seat. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialists of America-backed union organizer, has drawn progressive attention and narrowed gaps in some recent internal polling after highlighting differences on issues like affordability and foreign policy, yet broader surveys and trader assessments continue to favor the moderate incumbent. The short timeline before voting, combined with historical patterns of primary voters favoring sitting members over first-time challengers in Florida, reinforces the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing.