Recent polling shows Byron Donalds holding a 30-point or larger lead over Jay Collins and James Fishback in the August 18 Republican primary, consistent with strong Trump endorsement effects and consolidated party support. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a substantial victory margin, reflected in elevated prices for Donalds 40%+ and the residual "Other" category. Late undecided voters, turnout among base constituencies in key regions, and any final-week endorsements or attack ads represent the main variables that could compress or expand the spread. A surge by Collins or Fishback in urban or suburban precincts would narrow the outcome, while continued frontrunner momentum would reinforce larger margins. The primary's proximity limits further polling shifts before votes are cast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDonalds 40%+ 44%
Donalds 35–40% 34%
Donalds 30–35% 10%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$16,358 Vol.
$16,358 Vol.
18 août 2026
Donalds 40%+
44%
Donalds 35–40%
34%
Donalds 30–35%
10%
Donalds 25–30%
4%
Donalds 20–25%
4%
Donalds 15–20 %
2%
Donalds 10–15 %
1%
Donalds 5–10 %
1%
Donalds <5%
1%
Collins gagne
<1%
Fishback gagne
1%
Donalds 40%+ 44%
Donalds 35–40% 34%
Donalds 30–35% 10%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$16,358 Vol.
$16,358 Vol.
18 août 2026
Donalds 40%+
$7,412 Vol.
44%
Donalds 35–40%
$5,167 Vol.
34%
Donalds 30–35%
$682 Vol.
10%
Donalds 25–30%
$418 Vol.
4%
Donalds 20–25%
$409 Vol.
4%
Donalds 15–20 %
$403 Vol.
2%
Donalds 10–15 %
$310 Vol.
1%
Donalds 5–10 %
$315 Vol.
1%
Donalds <5%
$315 Vol.
1%
Collins gagne
$466 Vol.
<1%
Fishback gagne
$463 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Byron Donalds holding a 30-point or larger lead over Jay Collins and James Fishback in the August 18 Republican primary, consistent with strong Trump endorsement effects and consolidated party support. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a substantial victory margin, reflected in elevated prices for Donalds 40%+ and the residual "Other" category. Late undecided voters, turnout among base constituencies in key regions, and any final-week endorsements or attack ads represent the main variables that could compress or expand the spread. A surge by Collins or Fishback in urban or suburban precincts would narrow the outcome, while continued frontrunner momentum would reinforce larger margins. The primary's proximity limits further polling shifts before votes are cast.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$16,358Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Byron Donalds holding a 30-point or larger lead over Jay Collins and James Fishback in the August 18 Republican primary, consistent with strong Trump endorsement effects and consolidated party support. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a substantial victory margin, reflected in elevated prices for Donalds 40%+ and the residual "Other" category. Late undecided voters, turnout among base constituencies in key regions, and any final-week endorsements or attack ads represent the main variables that could compress or expand the spread. A surge by Collins or Fishback in urban or suburban precincts would narrow the outcome, while continued frontrunner momentum would reinforce larger margins. The primary's proximity limits further polling shifts before votes are cast.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$16,358Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Byron Donalds holding a 30-point or larger lead over Jay Collins and James Fishback in the August 18 Republican primary, consistent with strong Trump endorsement effects and consolidated party support. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a substantial victory margin, reflected in elevated prices for Donalds 40%+ and the residual "Other" category. Late undecided voters, turnout among base constituencies in key regions, and any final-week endorsements or attack ads represent the main variables that could compress or expand the spread. A surge by Collins or Fishback in urban or suburban precincts would narrow the outcome, while continued frontrunner momentum would reinforce larger margins. The primary's proximity limits further polling shifts before votes are cast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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