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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%

Mike Cubbard 9.0%

Polymarket

$44,661 Vol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.4%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%

Mike Cubbard 9.0%

Polymarket

$44,661 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,238 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,503 Vol.

32%

Niall Murphy

$1,833 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,630 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,633 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$2,915 Vol.

6%

Denman Rooke

$1,604 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,023 Vol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,689 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,092 Vol.

9%

Mark Lohan

$2,501 Vol.

2%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, reflecting momentum from his high-profile support during recent fuel and IPAS accommodation protests, positioning him ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne despite the latter's narrow 17%-16% first-preference lead in the May 1-5 Ipsos B&A/TG4/Irish Times poll among 530 voters. In this PR-STV contest for Catherine Connolly's vacated seat, transfers from a fragmented 17-candidate field—including Labour's Helen Ogbu (12%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%), and Independent Mike Cubbard (7%, Galway Mayor)—could prove decisive amid voter priorities on cost-of-living, housing, and healthcare. Fine Gael draws older voters, but mid-term anti-government trends favor challengers like Thomas.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$44,661
Date de fin
31 mars 2027
Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus prices Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, reflecting momentum from his high-profile support during recent fuel and IPAS accommodation protests, positioning him ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne despite the latter's narrow 17%-16% first-preference lead in the May 1-5 Ipsos B&A/TG4/Irish Times poll among 530 voters. In this PR-STV contest for Catherine Connolly's vacated seat, transfers from a fragmented 17-candidate field—including Labour's Helen Ogbu (12%), Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%), and Independent Mike Cubbard (7%, Galway Mayor)—could prove decisive amid voter priorities on cost-of-living, housing, and healthcare. Fine Gael draws older voters, but mid-term anti-government trends favor challengers like Thomas.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$44,661
Date de fin
31 mars 2027
Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Noel Thomas » à 44%, suivi de « Seán Kyne » à 32%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 44¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » a généré $44.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 26, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » est « Noel Thomas » à 44%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Seán Kyne » à 32%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.