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Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ?

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$47,339 Vol.

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$47,339 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$4,701 Vol.

31%

Niall Murphy

$1,834 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,654 Vol.

9%

Orla Nugent

$1,680 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,933 Vol.

4%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,057 Vol.

47%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,416 Vol.

11%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Vol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas leads trader expectations in the Galway West by-election at 46.5 percent, ahead of Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, reflecting his established local profile as an Independent Ireland county councillor with strong rural and Connemara support. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill the Dáil seat vacated after Catherine Connolly’s election as president, features over a dozen candidates under Ireland’s PR-STV system, where second-preference transfers will likely determine the outcome. Recent Irish Times/TG4 polling from early May showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences around 16-17 percent, yet market pricing indicates traders view Thomas as better positioned to consolidate independent and anti-government votes in the final campaign days. Kyne’s Fine Gael background and prior ministerial experience provide a solid base, while candidates such as Mike Cubbard and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich trail further back amid a fragmented field.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$47,339
Date de fin
31 mars 2027
Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas leads trader expectations in the Galway West by-election at 46.5 percent, ahead of Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, reflecting his established local profile as an Independent Ireland county councillor with strong rural and Connemara support. The contest, scheduled for 22 May to fill the Dáil seat vacated after Catherine Connolly’s election as president, features over a dozen candidates under Ireland’s PR-STV system, where second-preference transfers will likely determine the outcome. Recent Irish Times/TG4 polling from early May showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences around 16-17 percent, yet market pricing indicates traders view Thomas as better positioned to consolidate independent and anti-government votes in the final campaign days. Kyne’s Fine Gael background and prior ministerial experience provide a solid base, while candidates such as Mike Cubbard and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich trail further back amid a fragmented field.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$47,339
Date de fin
31 mars 2027
Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Noel Thomas » à 47%, suivi de « Seán Kyne » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 47¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » a généré $47.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 26, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » est « Noel Thomas » à 47%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Seán Kyne » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Galway-Ouest ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.