Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate Houston will reach a daily high in the mid to upper 80s on May 17, aligning with the market’s strong 80.1% implied probability for 86°F or higher. This positioning reflects typical May climatology, where the 1991–2020 normal high at Houston Intercontinental Airport stands at 87°F, combined with an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and limited cloud cover that favors daytime warming. Recent observational trends show light winds and moderate humidity levels that have not suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, while ensemble guidance shows low spread around peak values near 87–89°F. Traders appear to be pricing in this consensus ahead of final hourly observations used for official resolution, with minimal volume on lower brackets underscoring limited downside risk from unexpected cooling.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Houston le 17 mai ?
86°F or higher 86.3%
84-85°F 13%
82-83°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$16,393 Vol.
$16,393 Vol.
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
13%
86°F or higher
86%
86°F or higher 86.3%
84-85°F 13%
82-83°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$16,393 Vol.
$16,393 Vol.
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
13%
86°F or higher
86%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUCurrent forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate Houston will reach a daily high in the mid to upper 80s on May 17, aligning with the market’s strong 80.1% implied probability for 86°F or higher. This positioning reflects typical May climatology, where the 1991–2020 normal high at Houston Intercontinental Airport stands at 87°F, combined with an upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and limited cloud cover that favors daytime warming. Recent observational trends show light winds and moderate humidity levels that have not suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages, while ensemble guidance shows low spread around peak values near 87–89°F. Traders appear to be pricing in this consensus ahead of final hourly observations used for official resolution, with minimal volume on lower brackets underscoring limited downside risk from unexpected cooling.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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