Latest forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration show daytime highs in Taipei on May 17 centered on 29–31 °C, driven by a moist southerly flow ahead of the early Meiyu frontal boundary that limits full solar heating while still allowing afternoon temperatures to reach seasonal norms. Model runs indicate modest variability in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, which explains why 29 °C and 30 °C share nearly equal implied probabilities near 28 % while 31 °C trails at 22.5 %. Historical May climatology places average highs around 28–30 °C, but the current setup—persistent humidity above 80 % and light winds—narrows the range and reduces odds for extremes above 32 °C or below 28 °C. The next official guidance update overnight will likely refine these boundaries before the market resolves.