Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
22°C 14.7%
25°C 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 mai 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
7%
22°C
15%
23°C
20%
24°C
19%
25°C
11%
26°C
9%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 20%
24°C 19%
22°C 14.7%
25°C 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 mai 2026
20°C or below
$811 Vol.
3%
21°C
$312 Vol.
7%
22°C
$321 Vol.
15%
23°C
$103 Vol.
20%
24°C
$154 Vol.
19%
25°C
$131 Vol.
11%
26°C
$121 Vol.
9%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$69 Vol.
4%
29°C
$503 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$271 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$2,759Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,759Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Qingdao's May 16 high temperature, with ensemble averages from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance clustering around 23–24°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds. Recent cooler observations on May 15—highs near 16°C under increased cloud cover and coastal breezes—have compressed odds downward from earlier warmer projections, favoring 23°C (20%) slightly over 24°C (18%), while 25°C (12.5%) and 22°C (9.5%) trail due to risks of thinning clouds boosting insolation or persistent stratus capping peaks. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud evolution and sea breeze intensity, with historical mid-May norms at 20–22°C providing baseline context; watch CMA's evening update and 12z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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