Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 16 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 16 août ?
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$82,313 Vol.
$82,313 Vol.
16 août 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$82,313 Vol.
$82,313 Vol.
16 août 2026
24°C or below
$1,524 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4,459 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$21,861 Vol.
100%
27°C
$13,342 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10,598 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$6,475 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,999 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,773 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$5,147 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$4,627 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$2,520 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$82,313Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82,313Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency observations for Tokyo on August 16 confirm a daily maximum of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that exact threshold. Stable atmospheric patterns, including regional moisture and limited solar heating, suppressed daytime warming below typical mid-August climatological normals near 31°C. Trader consensus reflects real-time surface data and short-range model agreement, with urban heat island effects insufficient to push readings higher under these conditions. Only an unexpected late-day clearing or measurement revision by official stations could realistically alter the outcome before final verification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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