**Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and Météo-France guidance, indicate an overnight minimum of 13–14°C in Paris on September 16 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds.** This setup favors moderate radiative cooling without strong warm-air advection or cloud cover to trap heat. Market-implied probabilities—peaking at 48% for 14°C and 37.5% for 13°C—align closely with this consensus range, while lower probabilities for 12°C or 15°C reflect residual model spread and typical forecast uncertainty near the 10–15°C thresholds. The pattern follows a recent cooldown from mid-September highs above 30°C, consistent with seasonal transition and historical September lows averaging near 11–12°C. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24 hours, keeping trader focus on the next official forecast updates.