The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à San Francisco le 12 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à San Francisco le 12 septembre ?
60-61°F 99%
49°F ou moins 20%
56-57°F 20%
58-59 °F 20%
$491 Vol.
$491 Vol.
12 sept. 2026
49°F ou moins
Non
50-51°F
Non
52-53 °F
Non
54-55°F
Non
56-57°F
Non
58-59 °F
Non
60-61°F
Oui
62-63°F
Non
64-65°F
Non
66-67 °F
Non
68°F ou plus
Non
60-61°F 99%
49°F ou moins 20%
56-57°F 20%
58-59 °F 20%
$491 Vol.
$491 Vol.
12 sept. 2026
49°F ou moins
$0 Vol.
Non
50-51°F
$25 Vol.
Non
52-53 °F
$35 Vol.
Non
54-55°F
$35 Vol.
Non
56-57°F
$91 Vol.
Non
58-59 °F
$15 Vol.
Non
60-61°F
$290 Vol.
Oui
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
Non
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
Non
66-67 °F
$0 Vol.
Non
68°F ou plus
$0 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$491Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$491Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La température minimale à San Francisco sera-t-elle comprise entre 58 et 59°F le 18 septembre ?
52%
Oui
La température la plus basse à San Francisco sera-t-elle comprise entre 60 et 61 °F le 17 septembre ?
68%
Oui
La température maximale à San Francisco sera-t-elle comprise entre 70 et 71 °F le 18 septembre ?
44%
Oui
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