Forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center and international agencies indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 15 will likely settle near 26°C amid typical subtropical summer conditions, with high humidity and scattered thunderstorms limiting radiative cooling. This aligns with historical August climatology showing average lows of 25–26°C under monsoon influence, where cloud cover and moisture suppress temperature drops. Current consensus from extended forecasts points to 25–26°C as the most probable range, with minimal deviation expected absent a stronger frontal system. Traders appear to weight these stable atmospheric patterns heavily, as reflected in the dominant 26°C outcome, while noting that revised model runs or localized rain intensity could shift the final minimum by 1°C.