Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows in Shenzhen clustered around 25–26 °C for 31 August, producing the tightest market-implied odds near 45–48 %. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high boundary-layer moisture, and variable cloud cover create the primary uncertainty: clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling toward 23–24 °C, while increased low-level clouds or light southerly flow limit the drop. Urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C further moderate minimum readings. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders closely monitor the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles for shifts in the temperature inversion or wind direction that could move the outcome by 1–2 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shenzhen le 31 août ?
La température la plus basse à Shenzhen le 31 août ?
32°C or higher 80%
29°C 48%
25°C 46%
26°C 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
22°C or below
41%
23°C
41%
24°C
40%
25°C
46%
26°C
46%
27°C
26%
28°C
45%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C
45%
32°C or higher
80%
32°C or higher 80%
29°C 48%
25°C 46%
26°C 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
41%
23°C
$0 Vol.
41%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
46%
26°C
$0 Vol.
46%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
45%
29°C
$0 Vol.
48%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
45%
32°C or higher
$130 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows in Shenzhen clustered around 25–26 °C for 31 August, producing the tightest market-implied odds near 45–48 %. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high boundary-layer moisture, and variable cloud cover create the primary uncertainty: clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling toward 23–24 °C, while increased low-level clouds or light southerly flow limit the drop. Urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C further moderate minimum readings. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders closely monitor the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles for shifts in the temperature inversion or wind direction that could move the outcome by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows in Shenzhen clustered around 25–26 °C for 31 August, producing the tightest market-implied odds near 45–48 %. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high boundary-layer moisture, and variable cloud cover create the primary uncertainty: clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling toward 23–24 °C, while increased low-level clouds or light southerly flow limit the drop. Urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C further moderate minimum readings. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders closely monitor the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles for shifts in the temperature inversion or wind direction that could move the outcome by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show overnight lows in Shenzhen clustered around 25–26 °C for 31 August, producing the tightest market-implied odds near 45–48 %. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high boundary-layer moisture, and variable cloud cover create the primary uncertainty: clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling toward 23–24 °C, while increased low-level clouds or light southerly flow limit the drop. Urban heat-island effects and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C further moderate minimum readings. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders closely monitor the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles for shifts in the temperature inversion or wind direction that could move the outcome by 1–2 °C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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