Nicolás Maduro faces multiple counts in a U.S. District Court case in the Southern District of New York, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses tied to alleged state-sponsored drug trafficking. Prosecutors have encountered significant evidentiary hurdles in establishing the full scope of these charges, particularly the terrorism elements under the 2006 statute, which has seen limited trial convictions. Recent court proceedings, including the judge’s denial of defense motions to dismiss key charges in late March and the postponement of the next hearing until June 30, have extended pretrial stages without setting a trial date. This timeline, combined with disputes over defense funding sources and the potential for plea negotiations, underpins traders’ 87.5% implied probability that Maduro will not be convicted on every count.