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Politique·Élection Au Pérou

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

icon for Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Politique·Élection Au Pérou

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

18% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
18% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared inadmissible multiple clemency and humanitarian pardon requests from former President Pedro Castillo, including a sixth filing rejected in mid-June 2026 for failing to meet procedural requirements. The transitional administration has stated explicitly that no pardons or commutations are under consideration or scheduled, consistent with Castillo's November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. While presidential candidate Roberto Sánchez has pledged an indulto if elected, the current government stance, repeated rejections, and narrow window before the July 2026 term transition have shaped trader consensus toward a low probability of resolution in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.

A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.

Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,531
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared inadmissible multiple clemency and humanitarian pardon requests from former President Pedro Castillo, including a sixth filing rejected in mid-June 2026 for failing to meet procedural requirements. The transitional administration has stated explicitly that no pardons or commutations are under consideration or scheduled, consistent with Castillo's November 2025 conviction and 11-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. While presidential candidate Roberto Sánchez has pledged an indulto if elected, the current government stance, repeated rejections, and narrow window before the July 2026 term transition have shaped trader consensus toward a low probability of resolution in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.

A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.

Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,531
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 18% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 18¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 18% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 10, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? » est de 18% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 18% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.