Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, upheld by appeal on August 17, removed Yabloko’s federal party list from the September State Duma ballot after a Rodina lawsuit citing copyright and related claims. The Central Election Commission has since finalized a revised ballot excluding the list, leaving no mechanism for proportional-representation votes that could meet the 5% threshold. Historical precedent shows Yabloko last clearing that bar in 1999 and polling near 1-2% in subsequent cycles amid documented administrative and media constraints. While single-member constituency candidacies remain, they do not affect the list-based threshold market. Late reinstatement via Constitutional Court review or procedural reversal before voting opens September 18-20 represents the narrowest remaining pathway, though current timing and institutional patterns render such outcomes remote in trader assessments.