**The US decision not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations that no such extension will occur this year.** Under the agreement’s sunset and review provisions, the United States declined to renew the pact in its current form, while Mexico and Canada supported extension. This activated annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than a clean renewal. Bilateral talks between the US and Mexico have continued on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and measures addressing Chinese content in North American supply chains, but no trilateral consensus on a full 16-year term has emerged. Ongoing negotiations and the shift to yearly reviews have kept the probability of a 2026 extension low, consistent with the 89% implied odds on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
11% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
11% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations that no such extension will occur this year.**
Under the agreement’s sunset and review provisions, the United States declined to renew the pact in its current form, while Mexico and Canada supported extension. This activated annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than a clean renewal. Bilateral talks between the US and Mexico have continued on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and measures addressing Chinese content in North American supply chains, but no trilateral consensus on a full 16-year term has emerged. Ongoing negotiations and the shift to yearly reviews have kept the probability of a 2026 extension low, consistent with the 89% implied odds on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,716Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations that no such extension will occur this year.**
Under the agreement’s sunset and review provisions, the United States declined to renew the pact in its current form, while Mexico and Canada supported extension. This activated annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than a clean renewal. Bilateral talks between the US and Mexico have continued on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and measures addressing Chinese content in North American supply chains, but no trilateral consensus on a full 16-year term has emerged. Ongoing negotiations and the shift to yearly reviews have kept the probability of a 2026 extension low, consistent with the 89% implied odds on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,716Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**The US decision not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA at the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations that no such extension will occur this year.** Under the agreement’s sunset and review provisions, the United States declined to renew the pact in its current form, while Mexico and Canada supported extension. This activated annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than a clean renewal. Bilateral talks between the US and Mexico have continued on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and measures addressing Chinese content in North American supply chains, but no trilateral consensus on a full 16-year term has emerged. Ongoing negotiations and the shift to yearly reviews have kept the probability of a 2026 extension low, consistent with the 89% implied odds on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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