Trump has issued hundreds of pardons and commutations since returning to office in January 2025, beginning with nearly 1,600 January 6 cases on his first day and continuing with batches in 2026 that include allies, donors, drug offenders, fraud convictions, and firearms cases. Recent grants include 30 clemency actions on September 3 and additional ones around September 8, often announced with delays through the pardon czar or DOJ. This pattern of regular executive clemency, sometimes tied to political or donor considerations and with pending applications in the thousands, shapes trader views on the probability of at least one new grant occurring before any specific near-term cutoff. Scheduled or anticipated actions within the resolution window remain the main variables.