**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30. Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill Iran hold a presidential election by...?
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
$767,288 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
December 31
29%
$767,288 Vol.
December 31
$74 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30.
Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$767,288Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30.
Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$767,288Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30. Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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