The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa mission lunaire Doge-1 sera-t-elle lancée avant 2027 ?
Oui
$800,697 Vol.
$800,697 Vol.
Oui
$800,697 Vol.
$800,697 Vol.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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