The Bank of Mexico’s recent May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its lowest since 2022—while declaring an end to the two-year easing cycle underpins the 93% market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. April headline inflation eased to 4.45% and core to 4.26%, both still above the 3% target, while Q1 GDP contraction created additional economic slack that reduced demand-side pressures. Banxico’s updated forecasts show convergence to target only by mid-2027 amid elevated geopolitical and trade uncertainties, reinforcing trader consensus that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate. A clear break in this positioning would require either sustained core inflation deceleration below recent levels or sharper downside growth surprises sufficient to reopen the door to further easing before the next data releases.