The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit forward guidance that the easing cycle has concluded, underpins the 94 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Weak first-quarter GDP, moderating headline and core inflation near 4.5 percent and 4.3 percent, and persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties have reinforced the board’s preference for holding the current restrictive stance. With inflation still above the 3 percent target but expected to converge by mid-2027, traders view further cuts or hikes as unlikely absent sustained core disinflation or a sharper economic rebound. Key upcoming data releases on May and June CPI, together with the minutes from the May meeting, could still introduce modest volatility before resolution.