Recent July 2026 core CPI data printed at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June and matching forecasts amid softer shelter and energy components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place August 2026 core CPI YoY near 2.38%, supporting trader consensus around 2.3-2.4% as the most probable outcomes. This pricing reflects ongoing disinflation signals from moderating goods prices, stable labor market conditions, and subdued monthly core gains, though upside risks persist from potential shelter reacceleration or services inflation. With probabilities tightly clustered between the top two outcomes, markets price in a narrow band around the prior release while awaiting the August BLS report and subsequent FOMC signals on the policy path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2.4% 40%
2.3% 36%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 4.0%
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
3%
2.3%
36%
2.4%
40%
2.5%
20%
2.6%
4%
2.7%
4%
2.8%
3%
≥2.9%
1%
2.4% 40%
2.3% 36%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 4.0%
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
3%
2.3%
36%
2.4%
40%
2.5%
20%
2.6%
4%
2.7%
4%
2.8%
3%
≥2.9%
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 core CPI data printed at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June and matching forecasts amid softer shelter and energy components. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place August 2026 core CPI YoY near 2.38%, supporting trader consensus around 2.3-2.4% as the most probable outcomes. This pricing reflects ongoing disinflation signals from moderating goods prices, stable labor market conditions, and subdued monthly core gains, though upside risks persist from potential shelter reacceleration or services inflation. With probabilities tightly clustered between the top two outcomes, markets price in a narrow band around the prior release while awaiting the August BLS report and subsequent FOMC signals on the policy path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया

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