Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration have converged on a 31°C daily maximum for Chengdu on May 17, establishing this outcome as the market’s near-certain resolution. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has delivered clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating well above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. With afternoon observations now concluding and no significant model divergence remaining, traders assign overwhelming probability to the 31°C range. Only an unexpected late-day surge in cloud cover or a sharp shift in steering flow could realistically push the recorded high outside this narrow band before official verification.