Recent meteorological guidance from the China Meteorological Administration indicates persistent low-level cloud cover and light drizzle across Chongqing on May 17, which suppresses solar heating and limits boundary-layer mixing under southerly flow. This setup holds the official daily maximum near 23 °C at the Jiangbei International Airport station, aligning with the market’s overwhelming 99.6 % implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology for the Sichuan Basin typically features highs of 24–26 °C, yet elevated moisture and reduced insolation are suppressing afternoon peaks this year. Ensemble models show minimal spread, though traders continue to monitor final runs for any late shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could nudge readings one degree higher.