Recent official observations show Moscow reaching a high of 27.1°C on May 17, supported by southerly flow and high pressure that has elevated daytime temperatures above the mid-May climatological average of 18–19°C. Ensemble forecast models from European and global centers now converge on a peak near 27–29°C for May 18, with slight differences arising from the precise timing of cloud cover and the strength of the afternoon boundary-layer mixing. These small uncertainties in wind direction and insolation explain why trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C and 29°C while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher, consistent with the narrow historical range for late-spring maxima at the VDNKh station. Updated model runs and the final 24-hour observation window will determine the exact outcome.