Recent numerical weather prediction runs from MetService and international models point to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on May 18 under light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies within a stable autumn high-pressure regime. This consensus aligns with the region’s May climatology, where daily highs typically range from 13–16°C absent strong northerly advection or frontal passages. The market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C reflects tight model clustering around these values, while the secondary 15°C outcome accounts for modest afternoon warming if cloud cover decreases. No significant synoptic shifts are forecast in the next 24–48 hours that would push readings outside this narrow band.