Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 16°C (47%) and 15°C (43%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 14, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble model outputs clustering in the mid-teens amid typical mid-May radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. The JMA's May 14 afternoon update indicates sunny conditions turning cloudy with highs near 26°C, limiting extreme overnight drops via partial cloud insulation, while urban heat island effects in central Tokyo further temper minima compared to rural analogs. Historical averages hover around 15°C for this date, with uncertainty hinging on exact timing of cloud cover and wind shear; official JMA observations from the Tokyo station will resolve as the lowest integer degree recorded from 00:00 to 23:59 JST.