Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, below consensus, combined with elevated April CPI readings near 3.8 percent from energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 real GDP in the 2.0–2.5 percent range at 25.5 percent. This outcome edges ahead of the 2.5–3.0 percent and 1.5–2.0 percent bands amid closely matched probabilities that reflect offsetting forces: resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, tempered consumer spending, and tariff-related headwinds that limit upside potential. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent offers some support for stronger readings, yet softening labor-market data and the absence of near-term Fed easing keep the distribution tight. Key upcoming releases including the Q1 second estimate, May retail sales, and ISM surveys could shift consensus as markets price in probabilities rather than point forecasts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
नया
नया
30 जुल, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
नया
नया
30 जुल, 2026
<1.0%
$593 वॉल्यूम
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 वॉल्यूम
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 वॉल्यूम
20%
2.0–2.5%
$536 वॉल्यूम
26%
2.5–3.0%
$420 वॉल्यूम
21%
3.0–3.5%
$661 वॉल्यूम
16%
≥3.5%
$509 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, below consensus, combined with elevated April CPI readings near 3.8 percent from energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 real GDP in the 2.0–2.5 percent range at 25.5 percent. This outcome edges ahead of the 2.5–3.0 percent and 1.5–2.0 percent bands amid closely matched probabilities that reflect offsetting forces: resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, tempered consumer spending, and tariff-related headwinds that limit upside potential. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent offers some support for stronger readings, yet softening labor-market data and the absence of near-term Fed easing keep the distribution tight. Key upcoming releases including the Q1 second estimate, May retail sales, and ISM surveys could shift consensus as markets price in probabilities rather than point forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,365समाप्ति तिथि
30 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, below consensus, combined with elevated April CPI readings near 3.8 percent from energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 real GDP in the 2.0–2.5 percent range at 25.5 percent. This outcome edges ahead of the 2.5–3.0 percent and 1.5–2.0 percent bands amid closely matched probabilities that reflect offsetting forces: resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, tempered consumer spending, and tariff-related headwinds that limit upside potential. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent offers some support for stronger readings, yet softening labor-market data and the absence of near-term Fed easing keep the distribution tight. Key upcoming releases including the Q1 second estimate, May retail sales, and ISM surveys could shift consensus as markets price in probabilities rather than point forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
वॉल्यूम
$3,365समाप्ति तिथि
30 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, below consensus, combined with elevated April CPI readings near 3.8 percent from energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has anchored trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 real GDP in the 2.0–2.5 percent range at 25.5 percent. This outcome edges ahead of the 2.5–3.0 percent and 1.5–2.0 percent bands amid closely matched probabilities that reflect offsetting forces: resilient business investment in AI-related equipment, tempered consumer spending, and tariff-related headwinds that limit upside potential. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7 percent offers some support for stronger readings, yet softening labor-market data and the absence of near-term Fed easing keep the distribution tight. Key upcoming releases including the Q1 second estimate, May retail sales, and ISM surveys could shift consensus as markets price in probabilities rather than point forecasts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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