This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" Polymarket पर 4 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, तेल प्रतिबंध राहत 14% (14¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद ईरानी संपत्तियों को अनफ्रीज़ करें 14% पर है।
आज तक, "ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" ने कुल $957.6K ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Apr 29, 2026 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 4 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" के लिए वर्तमान प्रबल दावेदार "तेल प्रतिबंध राहत" 14% पर है। निकटतम परिणाम "ईरानी संपत्तियों को अनफ्रीज़ करें" 14% पर है। ये संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं जैसे-जैसे ट्रेडर शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।
हाँ। सूचित रहने के लिए आपको ट्रेड करने की ज़रूरत नहीं है। यह पेज "ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" के लिए लाइव ट्रैकर के रूप में काम करता है। नए ट्रेड आने पर परिणाम संभावनाएँ रियल-टाइम में अपडेट होती हैं। आप इस पेज को बुकमार्क कर सकते हैं और टिप्पणी अनुभाग में देख सकते हैं कि अन्य ट्रेडर क्या कह रहे हैं।
Polymarket की संभावनाएँ असली ट्रेडरों द्वारा अपने विश्वासों के पीछे असली पैसा लगाकर निर्धारित होती हैं, जो सटीक पूर्वानुमान सामने लाने की प्रवृत्ति रखती है। "ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" पर $957.6K ट्रेड होने के साथ, ये कीमतें हज़ारों प्रतिभागियों के सामूहिक ज्ञान और विश्वास को एकत्र करती हैं। उदाहरण के लिए, Polymarket का एक महीने का सटीकता स्कोर 94% है। Polymarket की पूर्वानुमान सटीकता पर नवीनतम आँकड़ों के लिए, सटीकता पेज Polymarket पर देखें।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" पर अपना पहला ट्रेड करने के लिए, एक मुफ़्त Polymarket अकाउंट के लिए साइन अप करें और क्रिप्टो, क्रेडिट या डेबिट कार्ड, या बैंक ट्रांसफ़र से फ़ंड करें। एक बार आपका अकाउंट फ़ंडेड हो जाने पर, इस पेज पर वापस आएँ, जिस परिणाम पर आप ट्रेड करना चाहते हैं उसे चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।
Polymarket पर, प्रत्येक परिणाम की कीमत बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाती है। "ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" बाज़ार में "तेल प्रतिबंध राहत" के लिए 14¢ की कीमत का मतलब है कि ट्रेडर सामूहिक रूप से मानते हैं कि "तेल प्रतिबंध राहत" के सही परिणाम होने की लगभग 14% संभावना है। अगर आप 14¢ पर "हाँ" शेयर खरीदते हैं और परिणाम सही है, तो आपको प्रति शेयर $1.00 मिलता है — प्रति शेयर 86¢ का लाभ।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" बाज़ार May 31, 2026 को या उसके आसपास हल होने के लिए निर्धारित है। इसका मतलब है कि उस तिथि तक ट्रेडिंग खुली रहेगी और संभावनाएँ बदलती रहेंगी।
"ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" बाज़ार में 150 टिप्पणियों का एक सक्रिय समुदाय है जहाँ ट्रेडर अपना विश्लेषण साझा करते हैं, परिणामों पर बहस करते हैं, और ब्रेकिंग विकासों पर चर्चा करते हैं। अन्य प्रतिभागी क्या सोचते हैं पढ़ने के लिए नीचे टिप्पणी अनुभाग तक स्क्रॉल करें।
Polymarket दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा पूर्वानुमान बाज़ार है, जहाँ आप वास्तविक दुनिया की घटनाओं के अपने ज्ञान से सूचित रह सकते हैं और लाभ कमा सकते हैं। ट्रेडर राजनीति और चुनावों से लेकर क्रिप्टो, वित्त, खेल, तकनीक, और संस्कृति तक के विषयों पर परिणामों में शेयर खरीदते और बेचते हैं, जिसमें "ट्रम्प 31 मई तक किन ईरानी मांगों पर सहमत होंगे?" जैसे बाज़ार शामिल हैं।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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