Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 98.3% implied probability on no hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) May 15 outlook stating no tropical cyclone development expected over the next seven days across the Atlantic basin, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico, with no active disturbances or waves. This aligns with climatological norms, as Atlantic hurricanes—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 74 mph or greater—are exceedingly rare before June 1, with the last May formation being Hurricane Alma in 1970 amid only a handful historically since 1851. Current sea surface temperatures remain marginal in the main development region, combined with elevated wind shear suppressing organization. Realistic shifts could involve an unforeseen strong African wave rapidly intensifying, though NOAA's seasonal outlook on May 21 and daily NHC updates will refine this low-risk assessment.