Traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability against Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood because no legislative proposals, diplomatic initiatives, or official statements from either government have emerged to advance such an outcome in the past 30 days or longer. Sovereign incorporation requires congressional approval, presidential assent, and a formal territorial process that Venezuela, as an independent nation, has never pursued. Bilateral relations instead center on sanctions, migration policy, and regional security. Historical statehood cases involved extended negotiations and local consent, none of which apply here. Even improbable shifts such as major treaty negotiations or mutual consent agreements remain outside current policy frameworks.