The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision occurs against persistent annual inflation at 6 percent, well above the 4 percent target, with underlying measures near 4–5 percent and fuel-price spikes from refinery disruptions adding temporary but notable second-round risks. After the July 25-basis-point cut to 14 percent—the latest in a sequence of smaller easing steps—the central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7 percent and signaled smoother future reductions, citing more expansionary fiscal policy and the need to avoid reaccelerating price growth. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to no change, reflecting these inflation and policy constraints over moderate growth concerns, while any further cut would require clearer evidence of sustained disinflation before the meeting.