Traders assign the highest probabilities to a June 18 maximum of 30–31 °C in Chengdu because recent runs of global and regional models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration, indicate a typical early-summer pattern of partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity, and light winds that limit strong daytime heating in the Sichuan Basin. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest differences in simulated cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture producing the tight clustering around 29–31 °C; a slightly earlier or more persistent shower could cap the peak at 29 °C, while clearer conditions would allow brief insolation to reach 31–32 °C. Historical mid-June maxima average near 29 °C, providing context for the current market-implied distribution ahead of updated short-range guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours.