Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a northeast flow with increasing cloud cover and modest onshore influence from Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's September 18 high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s. This aligns with climatological norms near 75°F while limiting diurnal heating and capping any warm-air advection. Trader consensus reflected in the 49% implied probability for 82°F or higher appears driven by residual uncertainty in model runs two days out, potential for steering-pattern shifts, and the historical precedent of late-September warmth, even as current observations and short-range forecasts favor the clustered 72–75°F outcomes now trading near 20% each. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent guidance through September 17 will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
82°F or higher 98%
72-73°F 36%
74-75°F 36%
70-71°F 32%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
7%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
32%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
36%
76-77°F
29%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
26%
82°F or higher
98%
82°F or higher 98%
72-73°F 36%
74-75°F 36%
70-71°F 32%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
7%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
8%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
32%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
36%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
29%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
26%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a northeast flow with increasing cloud cover and modest onshore influence from Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's September 18 high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s. This aligns with climatological norms near 75°F while limiting diurnal heating and capping any warm-air advection. Trader consensus reflected in the 49% implied probability for 82°F or higher appears driven by residual uncertainty in model runs two days out, potential for steering-pattern shifts, and the historical precedent of late-September warmth, even as current observations and short-range forecasts favor the clustered 72–75°F outcomes now trading near 20% each. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent guidance through September 17 will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a northeast flow with increasing cloud cover and modest onshore influence from Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's September 18 high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s. This aligns with climatological norms near 75°F while limiting diurnal heating and capping any warm-air advection. Trader consensus reflected in the 49% implied probability for 82°F or higher appears driven by residual uncertainty in model runs two days out, potential for steering-pattern shifts, and the historical precedent of late-September warmth, even as current observations and short-range forecasts favor the clustered 72–75°F outcomes now trading near 20% each. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent guidance through September 17 will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a northeast flow with increasing cloud cover and modest onshore influence from Lake Michigan, keeping Chicago's September 18 high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s. This aligns with climatological norms near 75°F while limiting diurnal heating and capping any warm-air advection. Trader consensus reflected in the 49% implied probability for 82°F or higher appears driven by residual uncertainty in model runs two days out, potential for steering-pattern shifts, and the historical precedent of late-September warmth, even as current observations and short-range forecasts favor the clustered 72–75°F outcomes now trading near 20% each. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent guidance through September 17 will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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