**Market-implied odds heavily favor a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Qingdao on September 18, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts showing modest daytime warming under southeasterly flow.** Multiple numerical models and official outlooks from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration project a high near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate southeast winds off the Yellow Sea limiting full solar heating while preventing rapid cooling. Recent days have featured highs of 28–29°C on September 16 followed by a slight dip toward 26°C on the 17th, establishing a narrow temperature window consistent with typical mid-September coastal climatology for the region. Key drivers include the absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences, combined with sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover that caps peak readings below 30°C in most guidance. Minor model spread—some solutions reaching 27–28°C while others stay near 24–26°C—explains the concentration of probability mass at 28°C (53%) and 29°C (36%), with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ or sub-27°C outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Qingdao’s primary observing station, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from updated model runs on the 17th or early 18th capable of shifting the final distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 18?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 18?
28°C 51%
29°C 36%
27°C 8%
30°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
51%
29°C
36%
30°C
6%
31°C or higher
2%
28°C 51%
29°C 36%
27°C 8%
30°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$50 Vol.
1%
25°C
$149 Vol.
1%
26°C
$216 Vol.
2%
27°C
$296 Vol.
8%
28°C
$2,017 Vol.
51%
29°C
$896 Vol.
36%
30°C
$303 Vol.
6%
31°C or higher
$148 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Qingdao on September 18, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts showing modest daytime warming under southeasterly flow.** Multiple numerical models and official outlooks from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration project a high near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate southeast winds off the Yellow Sea limiting full solar heating while preventing rapid cooling. Recent days have featured highs of 28–29°C on September 16 followed by a slight dip toward 26°C on the 17th, establishing a narrow temperature window consistent with typical mid-September coastal climatology for the region.
Key drivers include the absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences, combined with sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover that caps peak readings below 30°C in most guidance. Minor model spread—some solutions reaching 27–28°C while others stay near 24–26°C—explains the concentration of probability mass at 28°C (53%) and 29°C (36%), with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ or sub-27°C outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Qingdao’s primary observing station, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from updated model runs on the 17th or early 18th capable of shifting the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,198Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds heavily favor a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Qingdao on September 18, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts showing modest daytime warming under southeasterly flow.** Multiple numerical models and official outlooks from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration project a high near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate southeast winds off the Yellow Sea limiting full solar heating while preventing rapid cooling. Recent days have featured highs of 28–29°C on September 16 followed by a slight dip toward 26°C on the 17th, establishing a narrow temperature window consistent with typical mid-September coastal climatology for the region.
Key drivers include the absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences, combined with sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover that caps peak readings below 30°C in most guidance. Minor model spread—some solutions reaching 27–28°C while others stay near 24–26°C—explains the concentration of probability mass at 28°C (53%) and 29°C (36%), with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ or sub-27°C outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Qingdao’s primary observing station, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from updated model runs on the 17th or early 18th capable of shifting the final distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,198Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Qingdao on September 18, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts showing modest daytime warming under southeasterly flow.** Multiple numerical models and official outlooks from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration project a high near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate southeast winds off the Yellow Sea limiting full solar heating while preventing rapid cooling. Recent days have featured highs of 28–29°C on September 16 followed by a slight dip toward 26°C on the 17th, establishing a narrow temperature window consistent with typical mid-September coastal climatology for the region. Key drivers include the absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences, combined with sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover that caps peak readings below 30°C in most guidance. Minor model spread—some solutions reaching 27–28°C while others stay near 24–26°C—explains the concentration of probability mass at 28°C (53%) and 29°C (36%), with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C+ or sub-27°C outcomes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at Qingdao’s primary observing station, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from updated model runs on the 17th or early 18th capable of shifting the final distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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