Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 27°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity between 83 and 89 percent, and widespread thundery showers driven by a low-pressure trough suppressed daytime heating and kept temperatures from exceeding the climatological mid-May average. This verified observational data, rather than forecast uncertainty, explains the dominant trader consensus. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or a shift in steering patterns that reduced convective activity, both of which would have permitted a higher peak reading on the Saffir-Simpson equivalent scale for surface temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
27°C 99.9%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$292,433 Vol.
$292,433 Vol.
May 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.9%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$292,433 Vol.
$292,433 Vol.
May 15, 2026
19°C or below
$3,583 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,551 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,480 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,250 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,799 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,477 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$30,336 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$69,254 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$89,457 Vol.
100%
28°C
$45,405 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$35,841 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 27°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity between 83 and 89 percent, and widespread thundery showers driven by a low-pressure trough suppressed daytime heating and kept temperatures from exceeding the climatological mid-May average. This verified observational data, rather than forecast uncertainty, explains the dominant trader consensus. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or a shift in steering patterns that reduced convective activity, both of which would have permitted a higher peak reading on the Saffir-Simpson equivalent scale for surface temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$292,433Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 27°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity between 83 and 89 percent, and widespread thundery showers driven by a low-pressure trough suppressed daytime heating and kept temperatures from exceeding the climatological mid-May average. This verified observational data, rather than forecast uncertainty, explains the dominant trader consensus. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or a shift in steering patterns that reduced convective activity, both of which would have permitted a higher peak reading on the Saffir-Simpson equivalent scale for surface temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$292,433Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 27°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the market-implied odds at near-certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity between 83 and 89 percent, and widespread thundery showers driven by a low-pressure trough suppressed daytime heating and kept temperatures from exceeding the climatological mid-May average. This verified observational data, rather than forecast uncertainty, explains the dominant trader consensus. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the result include clearer skies allowing greater solar insolation or a shift in steering patterns that reduced convective activity, both of which would have permitted a higher peak reading on the Saffir-Simpson equivalent scale for surface temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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